Market analysis of water electrolysis hydrogen production industry in China in 2023

With the continuous intensification of competition in the water electrolysis hydrogen production industry, mergers and acquisitions and capital operations among large enterprises are becoming more and more frequent, and excellent domestic and foreign water electrolysis hydrogen production enterprises are paying more and more attention to the analysis and research of the industry market, especially the in-depth study of the current market environment and customer demand trends, in order to occupy the market in advance and obtain the first-mover advantage.

At present, the global proportion of electrolytic water hydrogen production is only about 0.15%, looking forward to the future, green hydrogen is expected to benefit from the hydrogen energy proportion increase, green hydrogen accounted for hydrogen energy proportion increase dual logic, ushering in rapid growth, electrolytic water equipment will be the first to benefit. We estimate that the global market size of electrolytic water equipment will reach 16.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 106% from 2022 to 2025, and the cumulative market size of global electrolytic water equipment will reach nearly 1.5 trillion yuan in 2050.

Market analysis of electrolytic water hydrogen production industry in China in 2023

Hydrogen production by electrolysis of water is one of the most widely used and mature methods. There are three main technologies for producing hydrogen from water electrolysis: alkaline electrolysis (AE), proton exchange membrane electrolysis (PEM) and solid oxide electrolysis (SOE), but SOE electrolysis technology is still in the laboratory research and development stage. With the large-scale development of renewable energy and the increasing perfection of energy Internet construction, hydrogen production by electrolytic water has gradually become the focus of energy scientific and technological innovation and industrial support in various countries.

Green hydrogen is an important development direction of our energy strategic goals, and green electricity composed of photovoltaic and wind energy is the most ideal energy source for producing green hydrogen. "Scenery" green electricity + green hydrogen is a double environmental protection route of mutual achievement. In China, the booming hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is the pioneer and breakthrough of green hydrogen. To develop green hydrogen production industry, mainly rely on electrolytic water to produce hydrogen. For the near to medium term, China is also carrying out research and development of three kinds of hydrogen production technology from electrolytic water.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and other departments have intensively issued relevant documents to speed up the development of China's green hydrogen industry. In Deyang, Sichuan Province, the reporter came to the small Tiger Island demonstration project green hydrogen production equipment production enterprises, it is through proton exchange membrane electrolysis of water hydrogen production, more suitable for use in wind power photovoltaic projects, the equipment has not yet large-scale production, the cost is relatively high. In order to speed up the mass production of this new green hydrogen equipment, the domestic ****** proton exchange membrane electrolysis water hydrogen production equipment production base in Foshan, Guangdong province, will be put into operation at the end of April. Industry insiders said that within 3-5 years, the cost reduction of green hydrogen preparation is expected to reach 40%-50%.

On March 23 last year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen energy Industry (2021-2035), proposing to establish a "1+N" policy system to clarify the strategic positioning of hydrogen energy and deploy key tasks for industrial development. By the end of last year, local governments in China had issued more than 300 hydrogen energy policies, with various types of policies, and the direction of support was expanding from hydrogen energy transportation applications to cross-industry coupled application scenarios. With the support of national policies, the demand for hydrogen energy has ushered in rapid growth, and the bidding for electrolytic cell projects has increased significantly. Huaxin Securities on China's electrolytic water hydrogen production project incomplete statistics, in the bidding to the operation stage of the project up to 37, of which 25 projects announced the scale of electrolytic water equipment, has announced the scale of the project total power demand of 2.4GW, and 2022 global electrolytic cell equipment shipments of only 1GW, the high growth trend is clear.

According to the statistical analysis of the "Market Competition Pattern Analysis and Development Prospect Forecast Report of China's electrolytic water hydrogen Production Industry in 2022-2027 "published by Puhua Industrial Research Institute:

In the hydrogen production link, reducing carbon, improving efficiency, and reducing cost on a scale are the focus of innovation and investment. At present, hydrogen production from electrolytic water has entered the industrialization stage mainly by lye electrolyte and proton membrane pure water technology, which is also the main landing point of short and medium term investment. In the future, with the reduction of green electricity cost, the improvement of electrolytic water hydrogen production technology, and the improvement of the intelligent level of hydrogen production system, the three major cost items of hydrogen production are expected to continue to decline, and it is expected that the price of hydrogen production from electrolytic water of renewable energy is expected to be the same as the price of hydrogen production from coal in 2030-2035, ushering in the inflection point of large-scale replacement of fossil fuel hydrogen production.

Since 2022, the total scale of hydrogen production of electrolytic water hydrogen production projects under construction and planned in China has reached 12.1GW, and 98.5% are renewable energy hydrogen production projects from the perspective of power sources. Among them, the installed capacity of planned completed projects in 2023 and 2024 will reach 1327MW and 4716MW respectively, and the domestic market for electrolytic water hydrogen production equipment will usher in a blowout development. In 2021, hydrogen energy will be included in the future industrial layout of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of the 2035 Vision Goal, which means that China will begin to vigorously develop the hydrogen energy industry. According to the statistics of the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, the demand for hydrogen energy in China in 2020 has exceeded 20 million tons, and the demand for hydrogen in 2050 is expected to increase 7 times on the basis of 2020, reaching 160 million tons.

Hydrogen production from water electrolysis is an important development direction in the future. Hydrogen production by electrolytic water has the advantages of no pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions and high purity of hydrogen. From the perspective of production cost, hydrogen production from fossil energy is about 10 yuan /kg, industrial by-product hydrogen is about 21 yuan /kg, and hydrogen production from electrolytic water is about 30 yuan /kg. Industry insiders said that in the future, the scale of hydrogen production from electrolytic water will be further expanded, the state needs to provide preferential policies for renewable energy hydrogen production, reduce the network fees and user fees for renewable energy hydrogen production, and it is expected that by 2030, the cost of renewable energy hydrogen production will be reduced to 15 yuan /kg.

This report uses the primary market data of the electrolysis hydrogen production industry tracked by China Research Institute Puhua for a long time, as well as a large number of authoritative data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Development Research Center of The State Council, industry associations, the China Industry Research Network, and professional research institutions nationwide and overseas, and adopts the scientific analysis model synchronized with the international. Comprehensively and accurately frame the analysis system for you from the overall height of the industry. For more details about the industry, you can click on the report "2022-2027 China electrolytic water hydrogen industry market competition pattern analysis and development prospects Forecast Report".